2020 Non-Maricopa County Supervisor Races (updated w/ Results)
While a few high-profile county-level races in Arizona’s two urban counties have attracted attention this year, most county contests remain pretty obscure. While the vast majority of those small-county races will see sleepy, uncontested general elections, a few look to be potentially competitive and may carry significant consequences.
Note on results:
Coconino District 4
2020 General Election: former Tuba City school board President Judy Begay (D) 58.4%, Rep. Bob Thorpe (R) 41.6%
2016 President: 51–40 Clinton, 2018 Senate: 57–39 Sinema
2016 Race: Jim Parks (R) 50.7%, Janis Crosman (D) 49.1%
District 4 is composed of three major regions: east Flagstaff (~34% of votes), tribal land, including part of the Navajo Nation (22%) and the Hopi Reservation (3%), and rural towns southeast of Flagstaff (41%). The Nation and Hopi Reservation are the Democratic base, collectively voting 77–13 for Clinton. Clinton won the east Flagstaff precincts by a smaller 50–40 margin, and got trounced 35–56 in the southeastern towns. Sinema outperformed Clinton pretty uniformly across all three regions.
Republican Jim Parks flipped the district mainly by pulling a much more respectable 31 percent between the Navajo Nation and Hopi Reservation. He also fought to a draw in the east Flagstaff precincts, while modestly improving on Republican margins in the outlying towns. If Thorpe, who has represented much of the district in the House, can repeat that performance, a Republican hold would be possible. However, Begay has to be considered the favorite. Her victory would not only ensure a 5–0 Democratic sweep on the board, it would also give the board a majority of people of color.
Gila District 3
2020 General Election: incumbent Woody Cline (R) 56.9%, San Carlos Apache Director of TANF and Transit Bernadette Ann Kniffin (D) 42.9%
2016 President: 53–42 Trump, 2018 Senate: 53–44 McSally
2016 Race: Cline (R) 51.5%, John Marcanti (D) 48.1%
The main population base (~55% of voters) for this light red district is in east Payson and neighboring towns. That area is extremely red, voting 75–20 for Trump. The next largest populations are in the San Carlos Apache (18%) and White Mountain Apache (6%) reservations. These voters are heavily Democratic, voting for Clinton by 83–11 and 90–7 margins, respectively. The southern corner of the county, the Copper Basin (7%), is also heavily Democratic, voting 70–26 for Clinton.
The swing region is Globe, which is bisected between Districts 2 and 3. The precincts in District 3 voted 54–40 for Trump, but Sinema won them 50–45, and Marcanti flipped them all the way to 67–33 in the 2016 supervisor race. Kniffin’s hopes to flip this seat must include a similar performance in Globe, plus a turnout boost among San Carlos Apache voters. The district leans red, but Kniffin could ride a wave election to victory.
Yavapai District 3
2020 General Election: Yavapai College trustee Donna Michaels (D) 50.35%, incumbent Randy Garrison (R) 49.65%
2016 President: 48–45 Trump, 2018 Senate: 52–45 Sinema
2016 Race: Garrison ran uncontested
About half (~49% of votes) of this Sedona-area district is in Cottonwood (one of those precincts is split between Cottonwood and Clarkdale, but I’m calling it Cottonwood). Trump won this area 55–37. He also dominated 62–32 in the far-flung regions (2%) north of Sedona. The Democratic base is Sedona itself (40%), where Clinton won 55–38. She also squeaked out a narrow 46–45 win in Clarkdale (9%).
Sinema won the district by modestly improving on Clinton’s performance everywhere, but especially in Cottonwood and Clarkdale. In a strong year, Michaels has a clear path to victory, which would ensure at least token Democratic representation on the board.
Yuma District 5
2020 General Election: incumbent and former state Senator Lynne Pancrazi (D) 57.0%, financial advisor Page Misenhimer, Jr (D) 42.9%
Challenger: 2016 President: 47–46 Clinton, 2018 Senate: 52–45 Sinema
2016 Race: Pancrazi (D) 55%, Uribe (R) 45%
The swing district in the county, based in the heart of Yuma proper, District 5 will once again determine which party controls the board here. Former Sen. Lynne Pancrazi (D) flipped the seat in 2016, defeating Republican activist and 2014 LD 4 Senate candidate Connie Uribe. Geographically, the district is unusually small for a rural county board seat, taking up only a relative handful of blocks that make up downtown Yuma.
Pancrazi has to be the favorite to win re-election and keep the board in Democratic hands (going into a redistricting cycle). But the margins in this district are too small to be taken for granted.
Cochise District 2
2020 General Election: Ann English (D) 52.6%, ‘18 state senate candidate Lori Kilpatrick (R) 44.4%
2016 President: 50–42 Clinton, 2018 Senate: 52–45 Sinema
2016 Race: English (D) 59.6%, Dominic “Nico” Moots (R) 40.0%
District 2 takes in a portion of Sierra Vista (~26% of votes) and stretches out eastward from there, capturing most of Cochise County’s section of the border region, including Douglas (35%), Bisbee (20%), and Naco (2%). The sparsely populated area just north of those border towns accounts for the remaining 17% of the district’s electorate.
This configuration leaves each party with significant base areas in the district. The Douglas, Bisbee, and Naco precincts voted for Clinton by margins of 74–20, 60–30, and 68–25, respectively. Meanwhile, the Sierra Vista area precincts broke 66–24 for Trump, and the outlying northern precincts went a similar 66–26. The only “swing” turf is the lightly populated precinct surrounding Portal, on the New Mexico border.
English has been on the Board since 2009, after a previous stint from 1985–92. Her recent re-election campaigns have not been particularly competitive. She over-performed the ticket pretty much everywhere in 2016, but especially succeeded at reducing margins in the district’s red areas. A retired Elfrida superintendent and long-time local educator, English managed to squeak out a win in her home precinct while it was voting 68–26 for Trump. Given that past performance, she has to be considered a strong front runner for re-election once again.
Pima District 1
2020 General Election: principal Rex Scott (D) 50.3%, conservative “media personality” Steve Spain (R) 49.7%
2016 President: 47–46 Clinton, 2018 Senate: 50–48 Sinema
2016 Race: Miller (R) 54.2%, Democrats of Greater Tucson president Brian Bickel (D) 45.7%
The most competitive supervisor district in Pima County, District 1 includes pieces of both LD9 and LD11. Voters first elected “white pride” Ally Miller to this seat in 2012. With Miller stepping aside, self-proclaimed conservative media personality Steve Spain seeks to keep this seat in Republican hands against Democrat Rex Scott. Democrats have held a 3–2 advantage on the Board since at least the 2000 election (results prior to that are not available online), and a win for Scott would shift that balance of power to 4–1.(Republicans will likely retain the District 4 seat in the eastern portion of the county, with auto dealer Steve Christy heavily favored for re-election to his — he won his first term there by a 72–27 margin).
The district includes much of the northern suburbs and exurbs of Tucson, with most of the voters living in the foothills along the southern stretch of the district. The census-designated place of Catalina Foothills juts out to the east from 1st Ave, amounting to ~30% of the vote. This is the Democratic base here, voting 56–38 for Clinton.
The next large population base (~30% of the vote) is the census-designated place of Cases Adobes, stretching west from 1st Ave and taking in most of the area south of Oro Valley and west of the I-10. The area is also this district’s bellwether voting 47–46 for Clinton, 52–46 for Sinema, and 54–46 for Miller.
The third and final large population base is the Town of Oro Valley (~23% of the vote), which is completely contained in District 1, and serves as something of a counterweight to the foothills, voting 51–43 for Trump and 58–42 for Miller. The remaining 17% of the vote comes out of the eastern half of Marana and some adjacent county land, which is also red turf. Trump won here 54–39.
Miller over-performed Trump and McSally in each portion of the district, but especially in the Democratic-leaning Foothills and Adobes areas, showing a clear path to victory for Spain to follow. Holding Spain to Trump’s numbers in those affluent blue areas could be key to Scott’s path to victory here.
Pima District 3
2020 General Election: incumbent Sharon Bronson (D) 57.4%, ‘12 & ‘14 congressional nominee Gabby Saucedo Mercer (R) 42.6%
2016 President: 54–38 Clinton, 2018 Senate: 58–39 Sinema
2016 Race: Bronson (D) 52%, mortgage lender Kim DeMarco (R) 47.8%
Sharon Bronson, first elected in 1996 and the first woman to chair the Pima County Board, is well-acquainted with competitive races. On paper, she should not face one in 2020, given the decidedly Democratic lean of the district in recent years. Yet, she needed almost every bit of that Democratic advantage to survive re-election in 2016.
With the recent passing of Richard Elías (appointed to the Board in 2002, when Raúl Grijalva resigned to run for Congress), Matt Heinz’ defeat of Ramón Valadez (appointed in 2003, when Dan Eckstrom resigned after 32 years on the Board), and the retirements of Recorder F. Ann Rodriguez (first elected in 1992) and Attorney Barbara LaWall (first elected in 1996), Bronson will be the last nominee on the general election ballot who first won the office in a previous era of Pima County politics.
The district has four main population bases. About 36% of the vote comes out of Tucson proper (almost all of the city north of Grant Road is in District 3), where Clinton won by a whopping 66–25 margin.
A collection of precincts located in Tucson-adjacent unincorporated suburbs (places like Flowing Wells, Tucson Estates, etc.) adds up to another ~26% of the vote and is also Democratic, though less heavily so, voting 54–39 for Clinton.
The Republican base here is composed of the western half of Marana (~17% of the vote, 53–40 Trump) and a collection of rural precincts in the interior of the county (~15% of the vote, 59–34 Trump). Not all of the rural areas here are Republican, however. About 3% of the vote comes out of the Tohono O’Odham Nation, where Clinton won 86–8, while areas around Ajo and Arivaca also combine for about 3% of the district and voted 50–43 for Clinton.
Bronson underperformed just about everywhere here in 2016, as one might expect from how badly she underperformed overall. She should be able to survive another significant underperformance this cycle, but local Democrats would probably rather not sweat this one again on election night, especially if Spain is able to keep the District 1 seat in Republican hands.
