Where Arizona Democrats Can Win Legislative Majorities in 2020
Still two just seats away from a split Senate and now only two House seats away from ending the over-50-year Republican reign in the House, Arizona Democrats have their sights set on winning legislative majorities in 2020. This post takes a look at the battlegrounds where control of the legislature will be decided.
Democratic-Held Seats
The focus here is on seats that might flip red-to-blue, so we’ll largely leave potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents aside. But because the path to majorities gets much narrower if Democrats fail to protect what they have now, a quick note on that is in order.
Democrats hold seats in 15 legislative districts, all but one of which (Rep. Jennifer Pawlik’s LD17) went for Hillary Clinton (Trump won LD17 by a 49.2%-45.1% spread). Even David Garcia, despite losing statewide by 14.2%, carried 13 districts (he lost in LD17 and LD28). In short, barring a radical departure from the political environment of 2016 and 2018, Democrats should be in a good position to defend what they have in 2020.
Democratic Pick-Up Opportunities
Now let’s look at where Democrats can grab the handful of seats they need to take control of one or both legislative chambers.
A quick note on the data presented below: statewide results by LD for 2012–2016 are drawn from the Daily Kos Elections database, and for 2018 from prolific “Election Twitterer” Drew Savicki. Altogether, results calculated by LD available for the following statewide races: 2012 President, 2012 U.S. Senate, 2014 Governor, 2014 Secretary of State, 2014 Attorney General, 2014 Superintendent of Public Instruction, 2016 President, 2018 U.S. Senate, 2018 Governor, 2018 Superintendent. Victory margins in state House races are calculated based on the 2nd-place finisher (the marginal House seat). All results are converted to two-party vote shares for ease of comparison across races.
On the race ratings: I’ve deliberately avoided typical ratings like “Likely D” or “tossup” since we’re only looking here at Republican-held seats (so none of these races are “Likely D”). The ratings used here are not meant to suggest any specific percentage chance of flipping a seat — that would be foolhardy this early, or perhaps ever. Instead, they are meant to reflect a rough calibration of which seats are more or less likely to flip, in a context where none of the seats are extraordinarily likely to do so.
Tier I: Clinton-Sinema Territory
Legislative District 28: Sen. Kate Brophy McGee (R); Rep. Kelli Butler (D), Rep. Aaron Lieberman (D)
Clinton: 52.8%
Sinema: 56.3%
Hoffman: 55.9%
Other strong showings (at least 47%) by statewide Dems: Goddard (52.6%), Rotellini (50.1%), Garcia ’14 (55.3%), Carmona (48.3%)
Senate pick-up potential: Very Strong
House pick-up potential: n/a
Tier IIA: Trump-Sinema Territory
Legislative District 17: Sen. J.D. Mesnard (R); Rep. Jennifer Pawlik (D), Rep. Jeff Weninger (R)
Clinton: 47.8%
Sinema: 51.8%
Hoffman: 51.5%
Other strong showings: Garcia ’14 (48.4%)
Senate pick-up potential: Strong
House pick-up potential: Fair (if the Democrats run a full ticket)
Legislative District 20: Sen. Paul Boyer (R); Rep. Shawnna Bolick (R), Rep. Anthony Kern (R)
Clinton: 45.7%
Sinema: 51.9%
Hoffman: 51.5%
Other strong showings: Garcia ’14 (48.4%)
Senate pick-up potential: Strong
House pick-up potential: Strong
Tier IIB: A Series of Near-Misses
Legislative District 6: Sen. Sylvia Allen (R); Rep. Walt Blackman (R), Rep. Bob Thorpe (R) *term-limited*
Clinton: 44.5%
Sinema: 49.1%
Hoffman: 49.6%
Other strong showings: Garcia ’14 (49.5%)
Senate pick-up potential: Strong
House pick-up potential: Strong
Tier III: Light Red
Legislative District 21: Sen. Rick Gray (R); Rep. Kevin Payne (R), Rep. Tony Rivero (R)
Clinton: 42.0%
Sinema: 47.9%
Hoffman: 47.5%
Other strong showings: Garcia ’14 (47.0%)
Senate pick-up potential: Unlikely
House pick-up potential: Fair
Tier IVA: Former Swing District
Legislative District 8: Sen. Frank Pratt (R); Rep. David Cook (R), Rep. T.J. Shope (R) *term-limited*
Clinton: 42.4%
Sinema: 47.2%
Hoffman: 46.7%
Other strong showings: Garcia ’14 (51.4%), Carmona (49.5%), Goddard (48.0%), Rotellini (47.1%)
Senate pick-up potential: Long Shot
House pick-up potential: Long Shot
Tier IVB: Emerging Swing Districts?
Legislative District 11: Sen. Vince Leach (R); Rep. Mark Finchem (R), Rep. Bret Roberts (R)
Clinton: 42.7%
Sinema: 44.9%
Hoffman: 46.2%
Other strong showings: n/a
Senate pick-up potential: Long Shot
House pick-up potential: Long Shot
Legislative District 23: Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita (R); Rep. John Kavanagh (R), Rep. Jay Lawrence (R)
Clinton: 43.0%
Sinema: 45.1%
Hoffman: 44.8%
Other strong showings: n/a
Senate pick-up potential: Long Shot
House pick-up potential: Unlikely
Legislative District 15: Sen. Heather Carter (R); Rep. John Allen (R) *term-limited*, Rep. Nancy Barto (R)
Clinton: 41.2%
Sinema: 45.9%
Hoffman: 46.1%
Other strong showings: n/a
Senate pick-up potential: Long Shot
House pick-up potential: Unlikely
Summary
All told, Democrats have a real chance to build majorities in both chambers. The road runs through four districts primarily: LD6, LD17, LD20, and LD28. In a wave year, it wouldn’t be impossible to see an extra House seat from a red district like LD15, LD 21, or LD 23, but that would likely be the 32nd or 33rd seat, not the majority-maker.
